Is 10x a year sustainable? What the compute data actually shows

Three different quantities, all called compute. Log scales, so a straight line means constant multiplication. Nobody publishes world TOTAL compute - panel 2 is the AI-accelerator fleet only.

source: Epoch AI, 'Data on AI models' (notable_ai_models.csv, accessed 26 Oct 2026) - panel 1, 'Frontier model' flag; Epoch AI, 'Data on AI chip sales' (cumulative_timelines.csv, est. generated 27 Aug - 30 Sep 2026) - panels 2-3; Epoch AI, 'Data on AI Chip Users' (year_end_by_lab.csv, generated 9 Sep 2026) - the five lab diamonds; Dario Amodei on Bloomberg 'The Circuit', uploaded 17 Jun 2026 - the 10x/yr planning figure; Epoch AI data is CC-BY. Growth rates are least squares on log10(value) vs time, computed from the rows, never retyped • transform: Panels 2-3 sum Epoch's median H100e estimates across all chip types; quarters Epoch flags Incomplete are dropped (Q3 2026). Panel 3 divides each quarter by the same quarter a year earlier. • drawn 2026-10-26 14:40 UTC